The index, which tracks the cost of moving raw materials such as grain, iron ore and coal by ship, is on a tear. The index rose 4\% Wednesday to trade at its highest level in more than two years. It’s surged more than 55\% in March, according to FactSet, leaving it with a nearly 39\% rise in the year to date.
Analysts have noted the index tends to see a seasonal boost following the Lunar New Year. But economists at Panjiva Research argued that those effects had already dissipated by mid-February. ”The move in rates may reflect, therefore, a more fundamentally positive view” of the market, Panjiva said in a report earlier this month.
As for the equity market, the index tends to lead year-over-year performance of the MSCI World Stock Index—a global equity benchmark that tracks large- and midcap stock performance across 23 developed-market countries—by around two months, said Jeff deGraaf, chairman and head technical analyst at Renaissance Macro, in a Tuesday note that included the chart below:
